News Archive - Page 9 of 16 - Hybrid CoE - The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats

June 25, 2020

The COVID-19 crisis situation – a hybrid warfare perspective

Hybrid CoE’s COI Strategy and Defence (COI S&D) contributed as a co-organizer of the international webinar on ‘COVID-19 pandemic impact on the security environment and operations’ on June 24. The webinar was initiated by the Doctrine and Training Centre of the Polish Armed Forces (D&TC PAF). Co-organizers included the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences (EASS), the Adam Mickiewicz University (AMU) and the NATO Military Police Centre of Excellence (NATO MP CoE).

“The current COVID-19 crisis situations closely resemble war-like situations but despite this similarity and common ground, it is not war. However, if the virus were man-made, more controllable and scalable for targeted use, it could be a ‘dangerous hybrid weapon’. While the current COVID-19 crisis situation has a lot in common with a war-like situation, it has even more in common with hybrid warfare,” argued Dr Johann Schmid (Director of COI S&D), while presenting perspectives on hybrid warfare in the context of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Two key recommendations were provided:

As hybrid warfare and the current COVID-19 crisis situation have much in common, the concept of hybrid warfare could be used as an analytical framework to help better understand the parameters, mechanisms and dynamics of this complex multi-domain challenge, with shifting centres of gravity as well as its direct and indirect implications for security.

The way in which different actors (nations) organize their comprehensive approach and crisis response mechanisms to counter the COVID-19 crisis should be analyzed and studied carefully, as there is a lot to learn about organizing the comprehensive approach, bridging interface challenges and optimizing crisis response mechanisms to counter hybrid challenges.

The crisis situations provide an opportunity for deep, long-term and systematic learning from countering COVID-19 to countering hybrid threats, conflict and warfare.

March 26, 2020

Changes in the activities due to the coronavirus outbreak

As a result of preventive and precautionary measures, Hybrid CoE has to limit its activities at least until the end of May.

All physical events and workshops have therefore been cancelled or postponed. Information on individual events and their postponement will be shared with the registered or potential participants by the respective Centre’s functions. Following the recommendations of the Finnish government, all travel by Hybrid CoE staff has also been cancelled, and remote work will be prioritized during the upcoming weeks.

Hybrid CoE continues working during these exceptional circumstances and wants to maintain an active network of policy practitioners, researchers and private sector specialists. Although physical events have been postponed, the Centre will continue to support participating states and will organise a series of online meetings, gatherings and webinars during the upcoming weeks. Also, Centre’s publication work will continue as normal, however, and we are generally reachable by phone and email.

Source: Shutterstock

March 9, 2020

Hybrid CoE launches a playbook on hybrid deterrence

The Community of Interest of Hybrid Influencing launched a playbook on how to deter hybrid threats in Brussels today.

The playbook introduces a basic understanding of how deterrence is applied to counter hybrid threats. “Hybrid threats can affect our economies, critical infrastructure and influence the views of our society. That’s why we also need a broad range of deterrent measures, not only military means,” says Vytautas Keršanskas, a project leader at the Hybrid CoE.

Hostile actors must be denied the space to operate. This requires a strategy of denial through increased resilience and imposition of costs to shape the perception of the adversary. The playbook is built practically to help the states develop their deterrence posture. It aims to inspire users to consider different options based on their own government’s capabilities and assets,” adds Keršanskas.

The playbook is based on the insights collected from security practitioners from Hybrid CoE participating states, the EU and NATO. Also, private sector companies and researchers were active partners during the one-year long project.

A public version of the playbook can be downloaded HERE.

March 4, 2020

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 6: Artificial Intelligence – A Key Enabler of Hybrid Warfare

Technological trends suggest that the portfolio of hybrid hazards will rapidly expand. With their disruptive potential, they open up new avenues for violence, as well as for the use of force in a hybrid warfare/conflict environment. New technologies have a catalytic effect on hybrid methods and tools. They improve the starting conditions for hybrid action, expand the arsenal of hybrid players and thus help to increase the reach of their activities as well as their prospects of success. Today, new technologies provide a way to achieve political goals in the grey area of various interfaces, such as between war and peace. Hybrid aggressors, but also NATO, EU and their member states can expect vast and diverse operational benefits from AI.

With this in mind, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) and its Community of Interest for Strategy and Defence (COI S&D) have initiated the Hybrid Warfare: Future & Technologies (HYFUTEC) project, aimed at assessing and enhancing understanding of the disruptive potential of new technologies in the context of hybrid warfare/conflict. Within its future & technology horizon scanning, the project has identified 19 technological trends with urgent and profound implications in the context of hybrid scenarios.

In order to provide insights into selected technological trends and to enhance understanding of their implications for hybrid warfare/conflict COI S&D is publishing a series of HYFUTEC Technology Papers under the umbrella of Hybrid CoE Working Papers. HYFUTEC Technology Paper No. 1, written by Ralph Thiele, concentrates on Artificial Intelligence as a catalyst and key enabler of hybrid warfare.

The complete working paper can be downloaded from HERE.

February 13, 2020

Hybrid CoE organises a workshop on Hybrid threats in the financial system

COI Vulnerabilities and Resilience (COI VR) organized a workshop on “Hybrid threats in the financial system” in cooperation with Bruegel in Brussels on 12 February. Almost 80 officials and experts participated. The workshop examined hybrid threats in the context of the financial system by assessing vulnerabilities and solutions for effective protection measures and improved resilience.

Particular attention was paid to potential systemic gaps that would open up possibilities for adversaries to use hybrid influence against economic and financial systems to create disturbances and prevent economic development and financial activities. Several segments of the finance sector were discussed and potential tools and drivers that could pose a threat to the financial system were introduced. These segments of the finance sector and the potential tools and drivers will constitute a Taxonomy of Hybrid Threats in the Financial System, which will be introduced at a later stage. In addition, a seminar record of the event will be provided for participating states, the EU and NATO later in the spring.

H.E. Mr António Manuel Coelho Da Costa Moura, Ambassador of Portugal, visited Hybrid CoE to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen.

December 17, 2019

Portugal becomes a participating state of the Hybrid CoE

H.E. Mr António Manuel Coelho Da Costa Moura, Ambassador of Portugal, visited Hybrid CoE to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen, officially making Portugal the 27th participating state of the Centre.

“We are delighted to have Portugal among the participating states. I’m sure that Portuguese practitioners and experts have a lot to offer our networks of practitioners. Countering hybrid threats is based on international cooperation, and so the broader our networks, the more effective this becomes,” said Tiilikainen.

“Portugal is pleased to join Hybrid CoE and is committed to deepening our cooperation with partners in this field. The process of becoming a member of Hybrid CoE has shaped our national coordination in addressing hybrid threats. We have opted for a whole-of-government approach, which reflects our commitment to a civil-military approach to meeting this challenge, and takes into account both its internal and external dimensions,” said Ambassador Costa Moura.

Besides Portugal, the participants of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Canada, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

December 13, 2019

Hybrid Warfare – Orchestrating the Technology Revolution

Dr. Johann Schmid, Director COI Strategy & Defense, contributed to STRATPOL: NATO at 70: Outline of the Alliance Today and Tomorrow, Special Edition of Panorama of Global Security Environment 2019.

The article focuses on the linkage between hybrid warfare and new technologies and identifies the need to orchestrate the technology revolution. It is connected to Hybrid COE’s Community of Interest Strategy and Defence (COI S&D) project on “Hybrid Warfare Future and Technologies” (HYFUTEC).

Key thesis and arguments advanced:

Technological trends suggest that the portfolio of hybrid hazards will rapidly expand. It is evident that political, civilian and military decision makers need to become more knowledgeable of the disruptive potential of new technological trends, which may offer new options of violence, as well as for the use of force in a hybrid warfare/conflict context.

In the face of these developments, hybrid warfare becomes not only the war of choice for the small and poor. It may also become particularly attractive for larger powers, as they can pursue their political interests with little risk.

Today the nation’s power – militarily as economically – rests on data. Via data and communication networks, computers and automation come together in a new way with remotely connected robotics. In a world of constant connectivity, data is the new oil. And networks are the new oil rigs.
Hybrid warfare happens in the real and in the virtual world. The real-world segment is in principal well observed and understood, while the virtual segment operates stealthy in the invisible world of computers and networks until showing effects in the real world, often to the surprise of an unprepared target.

Systems of systems thinking is key as hybrid actors fuse military and non-military means. We can expect hybrid warriors to develop models of their perceived targets and to use them to make an attack.

NATO and Europe are at a crossroads. Hybrid warfare is threatening member nations and NATO´s and the EU`s neighbourhood. Countering hybrid warfare requires the ability to protect vulnerable interfaces and to operate in their grey areas by adopting a truly comprehensive approach.
The given technological revolution must be orchestrated, for technical and operational reasons, but also with view to the fundamental interests and values represented by NATO and EU member nations. Three dimensions need to be tackled.

1.        Conceptually, strategy, concepts and concrete initiatives need to enable to successfully resisting and fighting hybrid aggression, as new
technologies are fundamentally challenging politics and society, economy and production, prosperity and democracy, security and defence.
2.        Technologically, the possibilities of the technological revolution need to be exploited, their misuse limited.
3.        Organisationally, as the technology revolution unfolds, there is reason for urgency in orchestrating and accelerating innovation in Europe.

Both, hybrid warfare and disruptive technology constitute serious challenges to NATO, the EU and member states. Meeting these calls for a determined, holistic and collaborative approach. Open, democratic societies that lack strategic vigilance are particularly vulnerable to hybrid methods of warfare.

The full article can be downloaded here (pdf).

December 12, 2019

Hybrid Warfare and New Technologies workshop in Stockholm

Hybrid CoE and its Community of Interest Strategy and Defence (COI S&D), in collaboration with StratByrd Consulting, organized the workshop: Most relevant Trends & Principal Implications on 4-5 December 2019 in Stockholm, Sweden. The event is part of the COI S&D “New technologies” work strand Hybrid Warfare: Future & Technology (HYFUTEC).

Participants were experts from the industry, military and security sector, ministries and academia. The Stockholm workshop began with an overview on maneuvering hybrid contingencies and critical infrastructure with emphasis on a comprehensive approach to the hybrid security environment. The role of military was presented as a deterrent, supporting and enabling actor to the civilian sectors.

The Stockholm HYFUTEC workshop followed-up the Berlin HYFUTEC workshop that kicked-off the Future & Technology: Horizon Scan on “Key Technology Trends”. In Stockholm experts focused on most relevant technology trends such as 5G and space, artificial intelligence; autonomous systems; cyber and electronic warfare; extended reality; quantum and ubiquitous sensors. Particular attention was given to principal implications regarding hybrid challenges at the political, strategic, and operational level to include challenges regarding the protection of critical infrastructures. Ways to accelerating innovation and to utilize the possibilities of modelling and simulation were highlighted.

Mr. Gergely Németh, Hungarian Deputy State Secretary for Defence Policy, handed over the Letter of Notification to Hybrid CoE's Director Teija Tiilikainen.

December 10, 2019

Hungary joins Hybrid CoE

This afternoon Mr. Gergely Németh, Hungarian Deputy State Secretary for Defence Policy, visited Hybrid CoE to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen, officially making Hungary the 26th member state of the Centre.

“The Hungarian decision to join the Centre adds to the cooperation in the field of countering hybrid threats. We are looking forward to having Hungary contribute to our activities,” said Director Tiilikainen.

“It is important that European nations are devoting increasing attention and resources to endeavour ways of multinational cooperation with regards to countering hybrid threats. In our assessment, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki is an essential element in the European toolbox as it serves as a network for information sharing as well as best practices and it provide a central platform for concerted efforts in the emerging security domains. Therefore, Hungary is glad to be able to join this community through our accession to the Hybrid CoE,” told Mr. Németh.

Besides Hungary, the participants of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Canada, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.