The power of cyber in hybrid conflicts explored

On 10 November, Hybrid CoE organized the 3rd Cyber Power Symposium on Hybrid Conflict and Warfare (CPH), gathering together experts from 22 Participating States, the EU and NATO, as well as from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and Switzerland. 

The participants, representing government, research, and the private sector, discussed how the emergence of new and disruptive cyber technologies will change the reaches of cyber operations. The means to limit or mitigate the exploitation of the cyber domain by hostile actors in hybrid campaigns were also explored, touching upon appropriate cyber-security measures as well as increased resilience and deterrence by the targets.

The symposium’s agenda and work builds on the findings of previous cyber expert-pool meetings and past annual symposiums. On this occasion, the focus was on cyber and new options for hybrid operations in the grey area of interfaces.

Legal resilience debated at Hybrid CoE’s flagship conference in Helsinki

Hybrid CoE held its flagship conference Outside and inside the law: Countering hybrid threats in the legal domain on Thursday 4 November at Pörssitalo, Helsinki. The conference brought together over 130 participants from 24 Participating States, the EU and NATO. The event included three panels with invited speakers elaborating on different aspects of legal resilience in national legislation, international institutions and organizations, and in the field of international law. 

The event was held physically under the Chatham House Rule, but short interviews with some of the conference speakers will be released on our website within this article during the week following the conference.

Dr Aurel Sari, keynote speaker at Hybrid CoE’s flagship conference, explains why it is important to consider law in the context of hybrid threats.
Dr Aurel Sari on future developments to follow in the context of law and lawfare.
Sandra Kalniete on the EU’s toolbox to counter hybrid threats and how it should be developed.
Sandra Kalniete on setting rules on data.
Sandra Kalniete on regulating accountability and transparency of platforms.
Major General Michel Friedling on hybrid threats in the space domain and what law has to do with it.
Major General Michel Friedling on how dependant we are on space.
Merle Maigre on regulating the cyber space within the international community.
Merle Maigre on cooperation in setting international norms and standards for cyber space.
Martijn Rasser on risks involved in dependencies concerning global supply chains.
Martijn Rasser on dangers of using apps like TikTok.

The EU and NATO need a legal threat register to build preparedness, writes Dr Aurel Sari in Hybrid CoE Research Report

As the UK’s HMS Defender sailed some 12 miles (19 kilometres) off Crimea’s coast last July, misinformation and competing accounts of the incident quickly clouded the legal assessment of the situation. Competing legal arguments fed into Russia’s and the United Kingdom’s political narratives, and appeals to the law became heavily politicized.

The HMS Defender incident is an example of real-time hybrid legal threats, where a hostile actor employs law and legal arguments in its tactics as part of an information operation. It illustrates how not all legal vulnerabilities are known in advance, and how this results in an urgent need for legal preparedness and capacity-building, argues Dr Aurel Sari in the new Hybrid CoE Research Report, Hybrid threats and the law: Building legal resilience.

“For actors such as Russia and China, law is a core component of their grand strategy,” Dr Sari writes. “They employ law both to exert control and project influence and to legitimize their acts and delegitimize their opponents.”

Building legal preparedness starts by drawing up a clear picture of the way in which adversaries are known to utilize the law to their advantage. Commonly employed tactics, such as hostile information operations, election interference, building energy and economic dependence to be used later, and cyber operations, all have legal aspects that hostile actors may exploit. The activities and the legal aspects should be categorized into a legal threat matrix and prioritized in the form of a legal threat register.

“The legal threat register should be kept under continuous review in the light of the evolution of the hybrid threat landscape. The register should also identify the legal vulnerabilities that the threats exploit or give rise to,” Dr Sari writes.

In this Hybrid CoE Research Report, Dr Sari shows how navigating the legal threat landscape demands a strategic approach which recognizes the systematic nature of the threat. According to Dr Sari, there are seven steps that the EU, NATO and their member states should take to build this strategic approach.

Read the whole report and its recommendations here.

To lead the discussion on hybrid threats and the law, and to mark the publication of the report, Hybrid CoE is organizing its flagship conference Outside and inside the law: Countering hybrid threats in the legal domain in Helsinki on 4 November. The conference brings together experts, policymakers, practitioners, lawmakers and academics to discuss and enhance legal resilience in and across our societies. Hybrid CoE continues to provide solutions and to share best practices in countering hybrid threats posed by gaps in national legislation and international law.

“The work needs to be done at multiple levels: in the national legislative processes, at the EU level, as well as in the context of international law. A special focus should be on governmental efforts to address hybrid threat attempts below the threshold of open aggression,” says Teija Tiilikainen, Director of Hybrid CoE.

The EU’s Strategic Compass must be adjusted to hybrid threats

The European Union needs a new approach to security and defence due to changes in the Union’s threat environment. For this reason, the EU’s upcoming Strategic Compass needs to take as its starting point the complexity of the threat environment and the pervasiveness and evolutionary nature of hybrid threats, says Rasmus Hindrén, Head of International Relations at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats. 

“The ‘hybrid’ in hybrid threats refers to the way that malign actors combine different tools at their disposal and target various domains from information, social and culture to space, cyber, and military domains,” Hindrén writes in his Hybrid CoE Working Paper dealing with the Strategic Compass process. 

There are multiple trends in the security environment that can best be understood under the concept of hybrid threats: a democratization of warfare, exemplified by cyberattack capabilities or drone technology becoming more available to small states and non-state actors, as well as the rapid pace of technological change, especially in the context of emerging and disruptive technologies. In addition, there is a cognitive element involved, as we all try to make sense of the wealth of information, misinformation and disinformation

When one adds to this the fact that the threat environment is characterized by competition – the constant probing of adversaries and potential adversaries, priming them for further actions and operating in the “grey zone” – it becomes clear why the EU needs a new approach. 

According to Hindrén, the primary objective of the Compass should be deterrence against hybrid threats, consisting of both resilience and countermeasures. Resilience ought to be understood in the context of both internal and external security. Countermeasures should be seen as combining both the member states’ and the Commission’s tools: sanctions, diplomatic tools, but also real kinetic capabilities. 

“Kinetic capabilities do not need to be owned or operated by the EU, but they must be integrated into the overall EU approach,” Hindrén says. 

To attain all of this, a greater level of integration within the EU must be achieved, both between internal and external security, as well as between the member states and the EU institutions and agencies. The relationship between the member states and the EU must be further clarified. 

“The member states should see the possibilities that the EU can bring in both enhancing resilience and supplementing the crisis response toolbox,” Hindrén writes. 

The Strategic Compass is a document that aims to clarify the EU’s assessment of the security environment, define the level of ambition in security and defence, and offer concrete tools to achieve that level of ambition. The Compass is set to be finalized during the French presidency of the EU Council in 2022. 

Read the whole Hybrid CoE Working Paper here.

Sönke Marahrens starts as Director of Community of Interest on Strategy & Defence

Colonel Sönke Marahrens takes up the position of Director of Community of Interest on Strategy and Defence (COI S&D) at Hybrid CoE on 1 October 2021. 

Mr Marahrens replaces Dr Johann Schmid, who has worked in this position since the establishment of COI S&D in 2018, and is now moving to a new position outside of the Centre. 

Mr Marahrens is a career Air Force officer, and is moving to Hybrid CoE from his position as Head of Research for Strategy and Armed Forces at the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies in Hamburg. He holds a master’s degree from the Royal Military College in Kingston, Canada, and another from the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Hamburg. In addition, he has a full Diploma in Computer Science.

Mr Marahrens has been deployed with NATO to Bosnia and Kosovo, and in 2020 he served as Branch Head for Transition at NATO HQ Resolute Support in Kabul, Afghanistan. 

“I am proud and honoured to join Hybrid CoE, whose members are highly committed to protecting the freedom and rights of European citizens and their friends and allies through research, exploration and new ideas,” Mr Marahrens said.

The Community of Interest on Strategy and Defence focuses on hybrid warfare, related strategies and implications for security policy, the military and defence. It aims at uncovering the essence and nature of hybrid warfare, as well as the logic and pattern of hybrid strategies in order to develop a solid analytical framework as a basis for the assessment of current and future hybrid warfare situations and their practical implications. 

Belgium becomes Hybrid CoE’s 30th Participating State

This morning, Mrs Annelies Verlinden, Belgium’s Minister of the Interior, visited Hybrid CoE to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen, officially making Belgium the 30th Participating State of the Centre.

“Due to the inherent complexity of hybrid threats, working together at an international level is essential. Belgium is pleased and proud to join the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, and to work together with the Centre and its Participating States in order to enhance its resilience against such threats. We are looking forward to establishing cooperation and a constructive relationship,” stated Mrs Verlinden.

“I have been looking forward to welcoming Belgium as a Participating State as I think we share so many common interests in protecting democratic societies from external interference,” added Hybrid CoE’s Director Teija Tiilikainen. “Belgium can make an important contribution to many of the Centre’s workstrands, so I eagerly anticipate its active engagement in our activities.”

Besides Belgium, the Participating States of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

Virtual training on maritime hybrid scenarios looks at exploitation of Exclusive Economic Zone / continental shelf as maritime hybrid instrument

Hybrid CoE conducted the third consecutive virtual training event on maritime scenarios along with their corresponding legal scan. On this occasion, the training focussed on scenarios one and eight in the Handbook on Maritime Hybrid Threats, namely on the protection of an underwater gas pipeline and the exploitation of a contested continental shelf / Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), as well as a new, proof-tested Handbook-derived scenario – fishing in a contested EEZ area as a possible hybrid instrument. The training was targeted at Hybrid CoE Participating States, the EU and NATO.

According to Jukka Savolainen, Director of COI Vulnerabilities and Resilience, the aim of the training series is to raise awareness of potential hybrid threats in the maritime domain, and to familiarize the Centre’s stakeholders with the existing international rules and norms, such as the Law of the Sea and international humanitarian law, and their applicability to each scenario. More scenarios will be integrated into the updated version of the Handbook on Maritime Hybrid Threats upcoming in 2022.

Unique hybrid wargaming course launched

During the month of August, the US Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) together with Hybrid CoE conducted two wargaming courses focussing on hybrid threats, in support of the Centre’s Participating States. This marked the first time that such a course was organized, where game-like simulations were conducted to train participants’ strategic thinking in the context of hybrid threat scenarios. 

Representing 10 Participating States, various national ministries, academia, and the private sector, thecourses brought together a unique group of students in Helsinki. Aimed at a diverse group of participants, these practical and educational workshops were designed to encourage a whole-of-society approach to cooperation in countering hybrid threats.  Through the creation of a unique hybrid threats wargame, the courses increased awareness of hybrid threats and understanding of nations’ ability to respond to them. 

We asked the main instructor on the courses as well as some of the participants to tell us more about the training. The video clips below include a selection of their comments.


Jeffrey Appleget, a senior lecturer at the US Naval Postgraduate School, on what wargaming is, conducting the game, and the purpose of wargaming.
Comments from the participants of the Joint Hybrid CoE & US Naval Post Graduate School Wargaming Course

Multidomain situational awareness: Using technology to outthink hybrid opponents

On 2 June 2021, Hybrid CoE and its Community of Interest on Strategy and Defence presented the ‘Hybrid Warfare Future and Technologies’ (HYFUTEC) curriculum for the second time, as an educational tool for the Joint Command and General Staff Course ‘Innovation and Military Technology Module’ at the Baltic Defence College in Tartu, Estonia.

The HYFUTEC curriculum focused on technological means of improving multidomain situational awareness in hybrid warfare/conflict/threat scenarios, including perspectives on: artificial intelligence and big data, options for serious gaming in hybrid warfare scenarios, open-source intelligence and media monitoring, space and satellite communication, AI-driven analysis and monitoring of military exercises, as well as views on the game-changing capabilities of the use of drones in hybrid warfare. The curriculum was concluded with an update on the DE-MASC Project, which is currently developing a multidomain situational awareness cockpit, combining web-based analytical information tools already on the market.

For further information on Hybrid Warfare and the HYFUTEC project/workstrand, read more here.

Croatia joins Hybrid CoE

H.E. Mr Josip Buljević, Ambassador of Croatia, visited Hybrid CoE today to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen, officially making Croatia the 29th Participating State of the Centre of Excellence.

“With hybrid threat activities against democratic states being amplified during the pandemic, there is an increasing need for joint efforts to counter the phenomenon with a more proactive approach. Hybrid CoE welcomes Croatia to its ever-enlarging community of EU and NATO members firmly engaged in strengthening the resilience of their joint democratic model,” Teija Tiilikainen said.

“Joining the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats is a very important step for strengthening the resilience of our country to this kind of challenge. Hybrid threats are complex and as allies we need to work together to counter them effectively. We are confident that our participation in Hybrid CoE will substantially enhance our capacities for countering Hybrid Threats. This is of paramount importance to Croatia as we are continuously confronted with hybrid activities in our country as well as in our neighbourhood. We are therefore grateful to be part of the Centre of Excellence in Helsinki, which is one of the crucial institutions for developing effective means to counter hybrid threats and strengthen allied and European security,” said Ambassador Buljević.

Besides Croatia, the Participating States of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Canada, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

Cyber

The power of cyber in hybrid conflicts explored

Read ›
Resilience

Legal resilience debated at Hybrid CoE’s flagship conference in Helsinki

Read ›
Resilience

The EU and NATO need a legal threat register to build preparedness, writes Dr Aurel Sari in Hybrid CoE Research Report

Read ›
EU

The EU’s Strategic Compass must be adjusted to hybrid threats

Read ›
Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Sönke Marahrens starts as Director of Community of Interest on Strategy & Defence

Read ›
Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Belgium becomes Hybrid CoE’s 30th Participating State

Read ›
Resilience

Virtual training on maritime hybrid scenarios looks at exploitation of Exclusive Economic Zone / continental shelf as maritime hybrid instrument

Read ›
Hybrid warfare

Unique hybrid wargaming course launched

Read ›
Hybrid warfare

Multidomain situational awareness: Using technology to outthink hybrid opponents

Read ›
Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Croatia joins Hybrid CoE

Read ›