News Archive - Page 4 of 16 - Hybrid CoE - The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats

May 3, 2022

Civil society engagement at the core of the ‘Resilient Civilians’ exercise

On 25–26 April, Hybrid CoE hosted the main exercise for the ‘Resilient Civilians’ project, funded by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme and led by UiT the Arctic University of Norway.

With keynote addresses by NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges Mr James Appathurai, EEAS Security and Defence Policy Director Ms Joanneke Balfoort, and Finnish Security Committee Secretary-General Petri Toivonen, the event drew some 70 participants to Helsinki from Hybrid CoE’s Participating States, including the private sector, academia and civil society.

The aim of the exercise was to hold scenario-based discussions in order to enhance preparedness for crises caused or instrumentalized by hybrid threat activities. “Civil society engagement in the face of a crisis caused by hybrid threat activity is of paramount importance,” stated Hanna Smith, Research Director at the Centre. “Civilian agency must be integrated into crisis response because civilians are the first witnesses, targets, and responders in many hybrid threat-related crises.”

The exercise findings will feed into the Resilient Civilians project results and constitute a major deliverable for the project.

April 25, 2022

Maritime hybrid threats under the loupe at Hybrid CoE

Russia’s attack on Ukraine and other recent international developments have accentuated the importance of studying the maritime domain to detect vulnerabilities to potential future hybrid threat operations.

Hybrid CoE’s flagship publication from 2019, the Handbook on Maritime Hybrid Threats, is currently being updated with at least five new scenarios. To gain feedback on the process from all Participating States, the Centre held a workshop on 22 April for relevant representatives and experts to map out potential new maritime threats to be included in the updated Handbook, which is due to be published by the end of the year.

The current edition of the Handbook presents ten hybrid threat scenarios with the potential to be realized in any part of the world, involving complex legal considerations in the context of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

“Unfortunately, it’s likely that we’ll see some of the scenarios realized in the near future. For instance, our Scenario 4 describing harassment of sea lines of communication by means of military exercises has become very relevant in the current international context,” stated Jukka Savolainen, Director of the Community of Interest on Vulnerabilities and Resilience.

“It’s very important for our Participating States, the EU and NATO to be ready to respond in such situations. The first step in establishing preparedness is to understand the legal frameworks concerned in each possible situation. The issues are complex and they require in-depth expertise in international law. Rapidly emerging situations require quick decision-making, firstly by maritime operators and soon after at the political level as well. If the legal aspects are not known, the decisions risk unintentional escalation. Legal argumentation of this nature, if started from scratch, may take days or weeks.”

“Legal preparedness is not the only aspect to be strengthened. We are there to help in organizing operational and political-level decision-making exercises as well,” Jukka Savolainen emphasized.

Source: Gil Corzo / shutterstock.com

April 21, 2022

New Trend Report on China: Regime survival is President Xi’s first priority

Regime survival is now the predominant trend in China’s power politics, writes Dr habil May-Britt U. Stumbaum from the Bundeswehr Universität Münich in the latest Hybrid CoE Trend Report on China.

According to Dr Stumbaum, Chinese President Xi Jinping is running a campaign to achieve utmost control within China, and over China issues worldwide. “Regime survival makes all other intertwined trends subordinate to this one overarching strategy,” Dr Stumbaum writes.

Covid-19 has worked as a catalyst for Xi’s goal, as the pandemic has offered up ample opportunities for disinformation campaigns and initiatives to discredit the competence of Western liberal democracies. However, Covid-19 has also increased pressure on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to deliver economic well-being and safety to Chinese citizens. The CCP needs to legitimize its grip on power more than ever.

At the same time, Xi is waging a historical campaign to remake Chinese society and render it fit for the global competition ahead. Central to this aim is ensuring that the people are absorbing the “right socialist values,” Dr Stumbaum writes. This spills over to China’s foreign policy and manifests itself as the second trend that Dr Stumbaum identifies: a “whole-of-society approach” in hybrid threat operations.

“The CCP’s siege mentality is part of its creation myth. Hence, understanding the role of ideology and the perceptions of the CCP is becoming essential in analyzing how domestic developments, structures, and paradigms spill over into China’s foreign policy approaches,” Dr Stumbaum notes.

According to the author, an ever-intensifying level of hybrid operations by China is to be expected. Other trends identified in the report are as follows:

China’s economic statecraft, which derives from sanctions and incentives for conditioned development projects, as well as altering international norms and standards.
China-Russia cooperation and coordination, with China drawing on lessons from Russian hybrid threat operations.
A rise in awareness, resilience and resistance in affected states, particularly in Europe, North America and the Indo-Pacific.

You can download and read the new Hybrid CoE Trend Report on China here.

This Trend Report forms part of Hybrid CoE’s work on analyzing China and Russia as hybrid threat actors. The work will continue in 2022 with a Trend Report on Russia, as well as a study comparing the two.

Read more on our work on China:

Hybrid CoE Trend Report 5: Trends in China’s Power Politics

Hybrid CoE Research Report 1: China as a hybrid influencer: Non-state actors as state proxies (by Jukka Aukia)

Hybrid CoE Paper 9: Towards a more China-centred global economy? Implications for Chinese power in the age of hybrid threats (by John Seaman)

April 12, 2022

Invitation to Jyväskylä Summer School course: ‘The Landscape of Hybrid Threats: Culture and the Changing Nature of War’, 8 –12 August 2022

The University of Jyväskylä (JYU) in cooperation with Hybrid CoE will organize a course on ‘The Landscape of Hybrid Threats: Culture and the Changing Nature of War’ as part of the 31st Jyväskylä Summer School. The course will enhance students’ understanding of how culture expresses the “memory” of the people. Broadly speaking, the course explores how vulnerabilities in the cultural domain can be exploited, as well as how this domain could also contribute to resilience in the sense that culture and diversity can have a protective and immunizing effect against hybrid threats/warfare.

Subjects to be covered:
– Culture as an indicator of hybrid crisis / hybrid threat / warfare impact (the Kassandra Project) (Brace for Impact) (HYFUTEC)
– Strategic culture: authoritarian strategic culture versus democratic states’ strategic culture versus state-specific strategic culture (R&D)
– “Culture eats strategy for breakfast” – how culture impacts policies and (military) strategies (S&D)
– Culture in the age of information and AI (HYFUTEC) / Cyber “culture” (e.g. disinformation)

Lecturers on the course will include Col (ret) Dr Martti J. Kari (JYU), Dr Hanna Smith and Colonel Sönke Marahrens from Hybrid CoE, as well as a number of guest lecturers.

The course is aimed at master’s students, PhD students, civil servants, as well as military and law enforcement officers with a basic knowledge of hybrid threats. More information about the course can be found HERE. The application period for the Summer School is 1 March – 30 April. Applications can be submitted HERE.

For further information, please email jss@jyu.fi

Source: Shutterstock

March 18, 2022

Hybrid CoE continues to work to support European security and Ukraine

While Ukraine is not a Participating State of the Centre, Hybrid CoE has had practical cooperation with the country since the Centre was established in 2017, and contacts have been further strengthened since the start of the war. The Centre has supported Ukrainian exercises and conducts analysis on the situation in the country.

The Centre’s current work concerning Russian aggression and its implications builds on Hybrid CoE’s longstanding research and analysis about Russian hybrid threat operations and strategies, disinformation narratives, as well as its strategic culture. This work will continue as outlined in the Centre’s work plan for 2022. Two recent publications related to Russia’s attack on Ukraine are ‘Russia’s military buildup along Ukraine’s border: What to expect?’ by Margarete Klein and ‘The Kremlin’s messaging on Ukraine: Authorities and “media” hand in hand’ by Jakub Kalenský.

Hybrid CoE stands firmly by the values of democracy, an open society, the rule of law and respect for human rights, and continues its work to strengthen its Participating States’ and the whole Euro-Atlantic area’s security. Our work is more important today than ever.

Jakub Kalenský assessing the Kremlin’s ultimate aim in its war in Ukraine.

Margarete Klein discussing the Kremlin’s ultimate aim in its war in Ukraine.

Jakub Kalenský commenting on the content and effectiveness of Russian disinformation concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Margarete Klein on what to expect from Russia concerning hybrid threats and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Source: Shutterstock.com

March 16, 2022

Due to its war in Ukraine, Russia may increase its hybrid threat activities in the MENA region

Russia uses a wide spectrum of hybrid threat tools in the Middle East and North Africa, ranging from the domains of culture and diplomacy to intelligence, information and the military. Russia is most active in Libya and Syria. According to the new Hybrid CoE Research Report, Russia’s hybrid threat activities in the MENA region promote its wider strategic goal of gaining a global superpower status, and may be increased due to the war in Ukraine.

“With Russia currently being isolated by the West, an increase in military, diplomatic and information operations in Syria could again be anticipated,” says Jarno Välimäki, Analyst in the Research and Analysis function at Hybrid CoE and one of the writers of the report.

So far, Russia’s escalating hybrid threat activity in the Syrian civil war has been largely successful, as Russia has become an indispensable player in Syria and, by extension, a major player in the region in general.

“For example, Russia could begin to challenge US air access and block its convoys in Syria. We are also already witnessing Russia trying to pressure the West in the Middle East over the war in Ukraine, as Moscow is threatening to derail the Iran nuclear deal talks due to new sanctions against Russia,” Välimäki says.

Russia’s involvement in post-2011 Libya highlights four main domains of hybrid threat activity: economic, military, political, and diplomatic. Russian activity in Libya has often been opportunistic, taking advantage of dissonant policies by the West.

“Russia’s focus on becoming indispensable, rather than exerting hegemonic control over a single partner, is a cardinal feature of Moscow’s hybrid warfare strategy in Africa,” writes Samuel Ramani in his chapter on Russia’s involvement in Libya.

In this Hybrid CoE Research Report, five writers analyze Russia’s hybrid threat actions through five case studies. The analysis includes the infrastructure, economy, culture, legal, intelligence, diplomacy, political, information, and military domains. In addition to Russia’s actions in Syria and Libya, the other case studies include:

China’s longstanding political and economic ties with Algeria;
Iran’s actions in Lebanon to gain access to the Mediterranean; and
ISIS’s activity in Iraq and Syria and its increased presence in North Africa.

You can download and read Hybrid CoE Research Report 5 in full here.

Source: Finnish Defence Forces

March 11, 2022

Hybrid CoE participated in JEF Counter-Hybrid Workshop in Helsinki

Approximately 40 hybrid threat experts from the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) met in Helsinki, Finland on 8–10 March during a workshop on countering hybrid threats.

The purpose of the workshop was to exchange information between participating nations on the broad-spectrum influencing environment. The relevance of the topic has been underlined by the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The workshop brought together military actors from the JEF countries and the researcher networks of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats.

“By training and working together with the JEF countries, we will be better prepared to counter hostile broad-spectrum influencing now and in the future, and this will also improve our common security,” stated Director for Strategy and Defence Colonel Sönke Marahrens from Hybrid CoE.

“JEF builds on strong relationships that have been developed between the participants through decades of working together. Through a shared understanding of the increasingly complex security challenges, we can develop the ability to both recognize and operate in an environment with broad-spectrum influencing,” added Major General Janne Jaakkola, Chief of Plans and Policy, Defence Command Finland.

“This JEF Counter-Hybrid Integration Workshop is more important and relevant than ever before. I’m pleased that we’re able to bring together experts from across the JEF nations to discuss and develop our collective counter-hybrid plans and capabilities,” said Standing Joint Force Commander, Major General Jim Morris.

The Joint Expeditionary Force is a multilateral defence cooperation framework led by the United Kingdom, consisting of ten countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The purpose of JEF cooperation is to develop the military readiness of the participating countries and, if necessary, to work together in crisis situations.

Preventing and countering hybrid threats and broad-spectrum influencing has been an important part of JEF cooperation from the start.

December 10, 2021

Iceland joins Hybrid CoE

Iceland officially became the 31^st Participating State of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats today, as Ambassador of Iceland H.E. Mr Auðunn Atlason handed over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen at Hybrid CoE’s headquarters in Helsinki.

“Hybrid threats are a complex and constantly evolving security challenge. Close international cooperation is the key to tackling them effectively and in a resilient manner. The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats and its network of Participating States provide solid analysis and contribute to an enhanced understanding of the nature of hybrid threats. Iceland is confident that joining the Centre will strengthen its ability to counter and respond to hybrid threats, as well as contribute to Iceland´s resilience. We look forward to taking part and contributing to its important work”, Ambassador Atlason said during the ceremony.

“I have the greatest pleasure in welcoming Iceland to join Hybrid CoE. Due to its expertise on the Arctic region and maritime environments, Iceland will make a substantial contribution to the key themes of the Centre”, Teija Tiilikainen stated.

Besides Iceland, the Participating States of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

December 3, 2021

‘Seeing red’ – project comparing Russia and China launched

Hybrid CoE launched a comparative actor analysis project called ´Seeing red’ last week in Stockholm. The overall aim is to enhance EU, NATO and Hybrid CoE Participating States’ understanding of Russia and China to better assess, detect and attribute hybrid threat activities before responding.

“Although a body of existing literature focuses on the hybrid threat activities of Russia and China as adversaries of democratic countries, a comparative analysis of the two countries’ strategic cultures and goals, and of their underlying drivers and motives need further attention,” argues Hanna Smith, Research Director at Hybrid CoE. “By providing a coherent discussion on the ways in which Russia and China view influence, threats, and status competition, the project explores ways to identify Russian and Chinese strengths, weaknesses, intents and early warning signs of potential adversarial hybrid threat activity.” In addition to the comparative perspective, the project also looks at potential collaboration between Russia and China in the hybrid threat realm.

As a central framework for analysis, the project applies a wide range of case studies from Hybrid CoE expert-pool members and other contributors.

The project will contribute to the development of Hybrid CoE actor analysis capabilities, and the findings will be compiled for publication in early 2023.

The event was held physically under the Chatham House Rule, but short interviews with some of the experts will be released on our website within this article and our social media.

Professor Pavel Baev from Peace Research Institute Oslo on what we should expect from Russia in the coming years in the context of hybrid threats.

Director of Swedish Center for China Studies, Jerker Hellström, discusses the importance of China research.

Head of Research Division of Eastern Europe and Eurasia at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Margarete Klein, analyzes the situation and possible scenarios in Ukraine.

The President of the European Commission Ms Ursula von der Leyen and the NATO Secretary General Mr Jens Stoltenberg met Ms Teija Tiilikainen, Director of Hybrid CoE.

November 28, 2021

Ongoing hybrid threats against the EU and NATO

During their joint visit to Riga, Latvia on Sunday 28 November 2021, NATO Secretary General Mr Jens Stoltenbergand President of the European Commission Ms Ursula von der Leyen met with Directors of NATO Centres of Excellence and Hybrid CoE.

Mr Jaak Tarien, Director of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, Ms Teija Tiilikainen, Director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), and Mr Janis Sarts, Director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, briefed the Secretary General and the President on their work to counter hybrid threats in the Euro-Atlantic region. Below is a short briefing note on the occasion by Hybrid CoE Director Teija Tiilikainen.

Hybrid threat operations are part of the ongoing transition of international power structures. With the current balance of political and military power still favouring Western powers, actors such as Russia, China or Iran use ‘unconventional hybrid methods’ to balance shortcomings in their power arsenal. By exploiting vulnerabilities in the political and societal systems of democratic states, they intend not only to weaken their target states, the EU and NATO, but to undermine the whole democratic model. Democratic values are the key target of hybrid threat activities as they are seen to put regime survival in authoritarian states at risk.

The recent trends of hybrid threat operations include systematic interference in democratic elections and election campaigns by manipulating the information environment (using both social media and traditional media channels), and hacking and leaking targeted information in cyberspace. Recently, cyberattacks against the information systems of Western governments and parliaments have been used to exert psychological pressure against democratic institutions.

Second, vulnerabilities in Western states’ critical infrastructures – stemming from critical sea lines of communication, financial systems, GPS navigation systems or critical supply chains – are being exploited to undermine economic and political stability, and weaken public trust in governments. By supporting the operations with an efficient disinformation campaign, the blame for the ensuing crisis is put on Western governments.

Operations using migration as a political instrument against EU and NATO countries are aimed at the very same goal of discrediting the democratic model and undermining the societal security and stability of Western countries. This instrument, which in the context of the 2015 refugee crisis was used to further amplify the effects of the crisis in Norway and Finland, is currently being used to destabilize the political situation in Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, and sow disunity within the EU and NATO. Another goal is to deflect attention away from Belarusian human rights violations against its own civil society.

Even hybrid warfare tools are increasingly being used to intensify pressure against Western states and their systems of collective defence. Snap exercises, violations of Western airspace, or processes of unexplained military build-up increase unpredictability and weaken the situational awareness of Western governments.

Hybrid threat activities require proper policy coordination from EU and NATO members, and solid cooperation between the EU and NATO. The toolboxes of resilience and deterrence should be complemented and made fully operational. The parallel strategy processes – the EU’s Strategic Compass and the New NATO Strategy – provide an excellent opportunity for this.