Viktorija Rusinaité appointed Director of Research and Analysis

Dr Viktorija Rusinaité takes up the position of Director of Research and Analysis (R&A) at Hybrid CoE on 11 April 2023. Viktorija replaces Dr Hanna Smith, who was appointed Senior Strategic Advisor to the Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in November 2022.

“The R&A leadership is an important position in Hybrid CoE and I’m very pleased to have a person with such broad expertise in many core fields of Hybrid CoE’s activities to lead this function,” said Hybrid CoE Director Teija Tiilikainen. “In welcoming Viktorija to her new position, I also want to thank the Lithuanian government for making such a valuable contribution to Hybrid CoE’s staff,” Dr Tiilikainen added.

Viktorija has been working at Hybrid CoE since October 2020. Since joining the Centre, she has been in charge of the deterrence of hybrid threats workstrand, first as Senior Analyst and from July 2022 as Deputy Director of COI Hybrid Influence. Previously, she served as Head of the European Security Programme at Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis, and curator of the annual foreign policy and security conference ‘Vilnius Consultations’. Viktorija’s analytical interests include transatlantic strategic security efforts, Russian strategic culture, and Belarus-Russia relations. She holds a PhD in Political Science from the Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania.

“The R&A team has been doing brilliant work in investigating the strategic cultures of Russia and China, hybrid threats in the Arctic, trends in cognitive intrusion, and processes in Eastern Partnership countries,” Viktorija pointed out. “Moreover, R&A is the main connecting point between practitioners in Participating States and the academic world. I am thrilled to lead this team and to further strengthen the Centre’s ties to the academic community and to support our Participating States with the most topical knowledge on hybrid threats.”

Hybrid CoE’s mission is to strengthen its Participating States’ security by providing expertise and training for countering hybrid threats, and by enhancing EU-NATO cooperation in this respect. The Centre is an autonomous hub for practitioners and experts, located in Helsinki, Finland. 

Seeing red, seeking satisfaction: Russia’s and China’s use of narratives of grandeur and victimhood to justify their foreign policy goals

In the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Putin’s Russia is more internationally isolated than ever before. Over the past year, Russia has thus invested considerable diplomatic resources in glossing over this effect of its war of aggression. Authoritarian peer-to-peer visits have become a central element of Moscow’s public diplomacy strategy. Last week, China’s President Xi Jinping visited Moscow, thereby fuelling suspicions about China’s role vis-à-vis Russia’s revisionist and expansionist foreign policy – and raising further questions about China’s own intentions.

In their new Hybrid CoE Research Report, Russia and China as hybrid threat actors: The shared self-other dynamics, Jukka Aukia and Lucjan Kubica from Hybrid CoE analyze the domestic factors behind Russia’s and China’s respective foreign policy conduct. Their analysis shows that there are striking similarities in the two countries’ strategic cultures. Hence, what we are seeing in Sino-Russian cooperation today, they argue, is much more than a marriage of convenience. 

The growing alignment in bilateral relations is based on mutual interests, especially to redress what they perceive as grievances. Both Beijing and Moscow hunger for a renewed geopolitical superpower status. Thus, they feel unduly constrained by an international order in which all states are entitled to equal and sovereign rights. As we have witnessed in Ukraine, this is all the more true in areas that are perceived as a ‘sphere of influence’. The goal of their nascent alliance is clear: a world order favouring authoritarianism – at the expense of democracies whenever necessary and possible.

A shared legacy of authoritarianism is also used by Russia’s and China’s strongmen to stifle domestic dissent, which they see as stemming from “Western values”. These values include democracy, but also universal values such as human rights, and the rule of law. In general, the so-called West is perceived by the leaderships in both Beijing and Moscow as the biggest external threat to their regimes, their cultures, and their ‘way of life’.

Despite an array of non-aligning interests, which the authors discuss, and of differences that may materialize in the long run, both China and Russia project their ideas of great power competition onto the West. In line with their strategic risk assessments, and in an effort to maintain legitimacy, they resort to hybrid threat activities against Western democracies – a trend which will likely intensify in the future. 

The full research report can be downloaded here, an overview of the main findings can be found here.

In, on, and under the sea: New maritime hybrid threat scenarios presented in a Hybrid CoE handbook

Russia’s attack on Ukraine and other recent international developments have accentuated the importance of studying the maritime domain to detect vulnerabilities to potential future hybrid threat operations.

To this end, Hybrid CoE has expanded and elaborated on new hybrid threat scenarios in its updated Handbook on Maritime Hybrid Threats, which is now available. The updated version analyzes a selection of 15 scenarios and legal scans, including five entirely new scenarios, demonstrating how malicious actors may seek to exploit vulnerabilities in the maritime domain. 

“The purpose of the Handbook on Maritime Hybrid Threats is to raise awareness about potential hybrid threats emerging at sea, to foster understanding of the legal context vis-à-vis international law, and to help Hybrid CoE’s Participating States, the EU and NATO in developing relevant political and legal responses as well as other mitigation tools to counter maritime hybrid threats,” pointed out Georgios Giannoulis, Deputy Director of the Community of Interest on Vulnerabilities and Resilience.

The new scenarios included in the handbook were chosen by Hybrid CoE experts on the basis of consultations and feedback received from the Centre’s Participating States, the EU and NATO in a series of expert workshops organized on the theme during last year.

“This year, the new handbook will provide the basis for our annual training programme Maritime Hybrid Threat Scenarios – Legal Aspects,” Georgios Giannoulis added. 

The new hybrid threat scenarios in the updated handbook are:

  • Undersea cable cuts 
  • Distant-water fishing
  • Freedom of navigation operations
  • Exploitation of marine resources in contested EEZ
  • Rigid-hull inflatable boat (RHIB) attack

Ireland becomes a Participating State of Hybrid CoE

Mr Ossian Smyth, Minister of State at the Government of Ireland, visited Hybrid CoE today to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen, officially making Ireland the 33rd Participating State of the Centre.

“The increasingly complex geopolitical environment presents a range of security challenges, including from hybrid threats, that are best addressed through international cooperation with like-minded states. Ireland’s decision to join the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, along with 32 other Participating States, will support the further development of our national capacity to detect, protect against and mitigate the harmful effects of hybrid threats, and to share our expertise with like-minded partners,” stated Mr Smyth.

“It is with great pleasure that I welcome Ireland to join Hybrid CoE. We are very happy to intensify cooperation with Irish practitioners and academic experts to counter the ever-changing hybrid threat environment. Ireland will make its valuable contribution to our joint efforts to identify vulnerabilities and enhance strong societal resilience in support of our common values and comprehensive security,” added Director Tiilikainen.

Besides Ireland, the Participating States of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

News media in focus in the third Countering Disinformation Wargame event

Teams from five Participating States, the EU and NATO, together with countering disinformation experts and journalists, gathered in Brussels this week with the aim of enhancing capacities to counter disinformation. The third Countering Disinformation Wargame (CDWG) event consisted of a one-day conference, ‘Demystifying Disinformation’, and a countering disinformation wargame exercise. 

The conference provided a deep dive into disinformation as a phenomenon in today’s complex information environment. The expert addresses and two panel discussions explored the characteristics and actors behind disinformation, as well as ways to counter it.  

In his keynote speech, Jamie Fly, President and CEO of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, emphasized the key role that a free press plays in democracies, despite the fact that independent media outlets are struggling today. Mr Fly also stated that the fragmented information environment, together with eroding trust, creates room for malign influence and disinformation.  

“How can quality journalism work to counter disinformation and defend democracy?” was the question posed by Paul Taylor, Contributing Editor from  POLITICO Europe. “By just doing its job, being there on the ground,” he answered, emphasizing the utmost importance of cross-checking sources. 

By simulating real-world scenarios, the aim of the wargame exercise was to raise awareness of disinformation and offer participants the opportunity to practise the best approaches to recognizing, responding to, and defending against disinformation. 

“Russia’s war in Ukraine and its disinformation activities around the world have heightened the importance of countering disinformation wargaming today. Our wargame scenarios reflect the Kremlin’s real-life intentions to use energy and food as weapons, and to use disinformation on these topics to sow distrust and division among democratic societies,” Hybrid CoE’s Director for Training & Exercises Shiho Rybski said. “Hybrid CoE will continue to train its Participating States, the EU and NATO in countering disinformation through wargaming in the future as well.” 

The event was the last in the series funded by the US Global Engagement Center. The Brussels event was organized in cooperation with Friends of Europe.   

Director of Research and Analysis Hanna Smith appointed to OSCE

The Director of Hybrid CoE’s Research and Analysis function, Dr Hanna Smith, has been appointed as Senior Strategic Advisor to the Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) from 1 November 2022. The position is based in Vienna, Austria.

Hanna leaves Hybrid CoE after being with the Centre for five years. 

“As one of the leading experts on Russia in Finland, Hanna has played a key role during the early years of Hybrid CoE by providing the Centre with her expertise and strong academic networks,” Director Teija Tiilikainen said.

“We’ll miss Hanna’s energy, her fresh and innovative ideas and her solid expertise. On behalf of the entire Hybrid CoE community, I’d like to thank her for these five important years at the Centre.”

More information: hanna.smith@osce.org

The 4th Cyber Power Symposium on Hybrid Conflict and Warfare

On 13 October, the 4th Cyber Power Symposium on Hybrid Conflict and Warfare (CPH) gathered together experts from 27 Hybrid CoE Participating States, the EU and NATO, as well as from Australia, Japan, Ukraine and Switzerland. The focus of the event was on hybrid and cyber aspects of cognitive warfare. Various questions were addressed during the event, such as: Is cognitive warfare equivalent to information warfare, or broader like cyber warfare, and what are their differences? Can cognitive warfare be countered by means of cyber defence, or do we need an additional cognitive defence with cyber elements? How are instruments of cognitive warfare combined with other hybrid threat instruments in operations against Western societies?

To sum up the discussions of the day, it was agreed that in the era of cyber warfare it is also essential to understand the effects of cognitive warfare. Adversaries are intent upon influencing us and our thinking to penetrate decision-making circles, whether focused on energy-related decisions, applying for NATO membership, or something else. It also means that economic and national security are now two sides of the same coin. To destabilize democratic states, hybrid threats are employed in cyber operations, information warfare, cyber-enabled disinformation operations, foreign direct investment, as well as in social media to manipulate large numbers of people. Sovereignty will duly take on a new meaning. As a consequence, not only land borders have to be defended but also the cyber and information space, as well as the control of data.

Malta joins Hybrid CoE

Mr Jori Arvonen, Chairman of Hybrid CoE’s Board, received a notification today regarding Malta’s participation in the Memorandum of Understanding of Hybrid CoE, officially making the country a Participating State of the Centre.

“It is my great pleasure to welcome Malta as the 32nd Participating State of Hybrid CoE. Malta has already been active towards the Centre before joining and I look forward to the country’s contributions to Hybrid CoE’s work in many areas, including economic and maritime issues,” said Mr Arvonen.

“In the complex multi-polar world, Malta recognizes that security challenges are on the rise, and can only be addressed jointly with like-minded partners. In this regard, acknowledging the complexity of hybrid threats, Malta is proud to join the other 31 Participating States in the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats. We look forward to our experts working together with the Centre’s networks in order to increase Europe’s resilience to hybrid threats. As an island state in the Mediterranean, Malta is willing to contribute its expertise in the southern neighbourhood and is always ready to offer neutral ground for diplomacy,” affirmed Mr Byron Camilleri, Minister for Home Affairs, Security, Reforms and Equality of Malta.

Besides Malta, the Participating States of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

Pilot course launched on cyber elements in hybrid conflict

A novel pilot course entitled “The Contribution of Cyber in Hybrid Conflict” was organized at Hybrid CoE premises in Helsinki on 12–16 September, with participation by 34 experts from 14 countries, the EU and NATO.

The objective of the pilot course was to educate participants about key elements of cyber defence and hybrid threats, and to provide them with individual training to enable them to address the implications of the nexus of cyber and hybrid. While applicable in a wide range of environments, the course focus was set to explicitly address implications in military operations. The course also provided participants with opportunities for networking and intellectual cross-fertilization.

During the first two days of the course, theoretical content about similarities and differences between cyber and hybrid threats and how to respond to them was presented and discussed. Starting on the third day of the course, the participants were divided into groups and assigned roles to act as representatives of a fictional nation or international organization in a decision-making exercise. The purpose of the exercise was to provide the participants with an opportunity to practically apply the theoretically acquired knowledge in a simulated malicious environment.

The course concluded with a debriefing session on the exercise and closed with a ceremony in which the course certificates were handed out. The course was designed by the European Defence Agency (EDA) and the European Security and Defence College (ESDC), and supported by the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE), the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), and the European External Action Service (EEAS). The course programme included overviews of Hybrid CoE’s and the CCDCOE’s working programmes, as well as an explanation of the differences and similarities between cyber and hybrid threats.

US NPS wargaming course returns to Helsinki

In August, the US Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), together with Hybrid CoE, conducted a wargaming course on hybrid threats in support of the Centre’s Participating States. This was the second time that such a course had been organized, with wargames created and conducted to train participants’ strategic thinking in the context of hybrid threat scenarios. 

Representing six Participating States, NATO, various national ministries, think tanks and armed forces, thecourse brought together a unique group of students in Helsinki. Aimed at a diverse group of participants, thispractical and educational two-week workshop was designed to encourage a whole-of-society approach to cooperation in countering hybrid threats. In this iteration of the wargaming course, students tackled the challenge of building an exploratory wargame which considered the influence of various actors on European energy security. 

The students went through the process of creating a wargame from start to finish, with the help of lectures, practical exercises and learning by doing. Through the creation of unique hybrid threat wargames, the courses not only increased awareness of hybrid threats but also overall understanding with regard to nations’ ability to respond to them.

Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Viktorija Rusinaité appointed Director of Research and Analysis

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China

Seeing red, seeking satisfaction: Russia’s and China’s use of narratives of grandeur and victimhood to justify their foreign policy goals

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Maritime

In, on, and under the sea: New maritime hybrid threat scenarios presented in a Hybrid CoE handbook

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Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Ireland becomes a Participating State of Hybrid CoE

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Disinformation

News media in focus in the third Countering Disinformation Wargame event

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Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Director of Research and Analysis Hanna Smith appointed to OSCE

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Cyber

The 4th Cyber Power Symposium on Hybrid Conflict and Warfare

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Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Malta joins Hybrid CoE

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Cyber

Pilot course launched on cyber elements in hybrid conflict

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Hybrid warfare

US NPS wargaming course returns to Helsinki

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