• September 12, 2023

Bulgaria joins Hybrid CoE

On 12 September, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats had the pleasure of welcoming Ms Mariya Gabriel, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria, when she visited the Centre to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen, officially making Bulgaria the 34th Participating State of Hybrid CoE.

“I’m delighted to be able to welcome Bulgaria as they join Hybrid CoE,” Dr Tiilikainen said. “In an increasingly difficult geopolitical environment, the value of cooperation among EU and NATO members and the sharing of best practices comes to the fore. By bringing its own perspective to the table, Bulgaria will further strengthen our joint efforts to counter hybrid threats.”

“We find ourselves in a geopolitically contested world, where hybrid tactics have emerged as a new set of risks and challenges that transcend borders and traditional spheres of security, and put our resilience and capacity to act to the ultimate test. In this new world, driven by rapid technological innovations, where the boundaries between the physical and digital realms are becoming increasingly blurred, Bulgaria stands ready to contribute to the activities of Hybrid CoE and looks forward to working with all our EU partners and NATO allies. Proactive cooperation should be the cornerstone of our common defence against new and evolving challenges in the hybrid domain,” Minister Gabriel stated.

Besides Bulgaria, the Participating States of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

  • September 12, 2023

Securing elections against foreign interference: best practices and recommendations

Ahead of the European Parliament elections in June 2024, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) has produced a report examining the countermeasures that various states are implementing to secure their elections against foreign interference.

In Hybrid CoE Research Report 10 – Preventing election interference: Selected best practices and recommendations – Veronika Krátka Špalková and Andrej Poleščuk present for the first time a comprehensive overview of the best practices implemented to safeguard electoral processes in the European Union and NATO countries. The study focuses on selected Hybrid CoE Participating States and also draws on the experiences of two countries that are on the frontline of foreign interference activities, namely Ukraine and Taiwan.

The research shows that in most countries, election interference is more often directed at voters, seeking to influence their decisions, rather than direct attacks on election infrastructure to manipulate the vote count. In consequence, the protective measures taken should emphasize building the overall resilience of the population to malign foreign influence.

The report categorizes the protective measures that are used according to the timeframe in which they were implemented in relation to election day. These range from long-term measures – often in place regardless of the election cycle – to measures taken less than three months beforehand, during and after the elections.

For the national and international authorities in charge of organizing elections, the report provides both a detailed table of individual activities taken by states within the different time periods in the run-up to elections, as well as a set of twelve recommendations to enhance the protection of elections against foreign interference.

The recommendations range from measures aimed at building citizens’ resilience to those related to legislative and systemic changes to create a more robust system to protect the election infrastructure and electoral processes against foreign influencing attempts.

The recommendations are available here.

The whole report can be downloaded here.

Salla Saastamoinen, Deputy Director-General, Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission presenting her keynote at the high-level event.
  • September 8, 2023

The CORE model – a useful tool for rethinking resilience comprehensively

In 2022, Hybrid CoE and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) launched a flagship report titled Hybrid Threats – A Comprehensive Resilience Ecosystem, suggesting a framework for rethinking resilience comprehensively. The report has been well received and has already served as the basis for further work by several stakeholders and organizations.

On 8 September, over 150 experts gathered in Helsinki and online with the aim of fostering policymakers’ and practitioners’ understanding of the Comprehensive Resilience Ecosystem (CORE) model as a practical tool for providing a hands-on methodology and helping to build resilience in a comprehensive manner.

The event was organized together with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and hosted a panel discussion where stakeholders, such as the European External Action Service (EEAS), European Defence Agency, Swedish Defence University, Netherlands Advisory Council on International Affairs, and NATO, presented how they have applied the model in practice.

During the panel, it became evident that the CORE model is already part of the EU’s political initiatives to build resilience against hybrid threats. It has supported the EU’s policymakers in identifying gaps and needs, as well as identifying ways to address them. At the Participating State level, it can serve as a baseline for national resilience-building efforts and as a source of inspiration for recommendations. The CORE model is also useful for training and exercise purposes.In their keynotes, Teija Tiilikainen, Director of Hybrid CoE, and Salla Saastamoinen, Deputy Director-General of the Joint Research Centre, emphasized  whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches towards countering hybrid threats, and highlighted the need for anticipation and foresight capabilities and the ability to actively shape the security environment rather than trying to catch up with adversaries. According to the Directors, the flagship report and the panel event are good examples of the intersection of science and policy.

Hybrid Threats A Comprehensive Resilience Ecosystem – Executive Summary

  • August 14, 2023

Tapio Pyysalo appointed Head of International Relations

Tapio Pyysalo, MSc Econ, has been appointed Head of International Relations at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats from 14 August 2023.

His predecessor, Rasmus Hindrén, will return to the Finnish Ministry of Defence on 1 September. Rasmus will start working in a newly created position as a team leader for EU and NATO defence policy.

The Head of International Relations is responsible for maintaining and developing relations with the Centre’s 33 Participating States, the EU, NATO, as well as other key partners.

“I’m very happy that we’ve found a highly competent and motivated successor to Rasmus, who has done a great job developing Hybrid CoE’s relations with its key stakeholders,” said Hybrid CoE Director Teija Tiilikainen. “Tapio will now take this important work forward, together with the hard-working International Relations team and the support of the whole Centre.”

Tapio Pyysalo is a career diplomat in the Finnish foreign service. He has gained experience from several foreign and domestic postings, with a particular focus on security policy and multilateral diplomacy. He was most recently posted to New York, where he worked on UN Security Council affairs, and has previously worked on EU and NATO security policy both in Brussels and Helsinki.

“I’m very excited to join the highly professional Hybrid CoE team at a time when its work is more relevant than ever. I look forward to working with all Participating States and other international partners to counter hybrid threats,” commented Tapio.

Hybrid CoE’s mission is to strengthen its Participating States’ security by providing expertise and training for countering hybrid threats, and by enhancing EU-NATO cooperation in this respect. The Centre is an autonomous hub for practitioners and experts, located in Helsinki, Finland.

Source: Romas_Photo / Shutterstock.com
  • June 12, 2023

Of waning certainties and rising risks: CoE experts delineate economic trends and hybrid threat activities

As global power dynamics shift and new technologies develop apace, new hybrid threats emerge alongside them. The global economy is interconnected on an unprecedented scale. At the same time, authoritarian regimes increasingly challenge the rules and principles of global governance. Hence, for the first time, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats has dedicated a comprehensive Trend Report to economic threat potentials.

New frontiers for hybrid aggression

“What we can clearly observe is increased target practice. Hybrid threat actors, such as Russia or China, resort ever more to the economic domain,” explained Hybrid CoE Senior Analyst Ragnar Ingibergsson,who has co-authored the report with his colleague Jukka Aukia. The authors argue for readjusted policy responses in the economic realm, calling for economic policies and national security strategies to proceed in lockstep. To this end, the report lists an array of examples on which policymakers should focus their attention.

As malign actors are searching for vulnerabilities in democracies worldwide, the authors observe that economic coercion is intensifying. “Economic hybrid threats are part and parcel of authoritarian strategies. Ultimately, they are a cost-effective tool to promote a political ideology. To achieve their ends, authoritarians will not stop short of inflicting harm – if they perceive the cost to be calculable,” Mr Ingibergsson stated. “Above all, this is a pragmatic choice, which is geared towards avoiding political accountability for aggressive actions.”

From economic coercion to weaponized resources

In the field of economic coercion, the report focuses on China’s posture, which – alongside its economic leverage – is in flux and becoming more confrontational: “As a global trade heavyweight, we can expect China to take centre stage as an economic hybrid threat actor. China will continue to leverage its economic threat potential to further its own strategic agenda – a scenario for which we will need to prepare ourselves,” Mr Ingibergsson added. 

Examples of hybrid aggression listed in the report range from deliberate attempts to manipulate supply chains for production, and attacks on critical infrastructure, to the weaponization of crucial resources. “Russian President Putin, for instance, has demonstrated his resolve to leverage whatever tool is at his disposal to create global divisions, be it the supply of grain or gas,” said Mr Ingibergsson, pointing to another example of economic hybrid activity in the report.

“To weather the multiple storm fronts in the economic realm, policymakers must reinvigorate fair, transparent, and rules-based economic principles. When it comes to authoritarian regimes, insisting on reciprocity is key. Ultimately, the costs of coordinated responses to risks will be cheaper than inaction. However, they will be reflected in global markets,” Mr Ingibergsson noted.

To avoid bloc-building – a scenario which the authors say they cannot rule out in view of the zero-sum thinking of some authoritarian regimes – policymakers in market-based democracies should pivot towards emerging markets. At the same time, they should show clear initiative in working towards fair and universal access to critical resources, and in preparing their societies more effectively, by linking the public and private sectors as closely as possible.

The full report can be downloaded here: https://www.hybridcoe.fi/publications/hybrid-coe-trend-report-10-threat-potential-in-the-economy-from-vulnerabilities-to-chinas-increased-coercion/

  • April 20, 2023

Hybrid CoE and the JRC launch a new model to build resilience against hybrid threats

The list of hybrid threats launched by authoritarian regimes and other hostile actors against democratic societies is long, with threats ranging from using coordinated disinformation and exerting economic pressure to instrumentalization of migration and launching cyberattacks. In fact, the list of threats is ever-growing as it is meant to challenge the democratic model. 

To help counter hybrid threats and support policymakers to defend their societies, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) have constructed a new model suggesting a framework for rethinking resilience comprehensively.

In the newly published report Hybrid threats: a comprehensive resilience ecosystem, the authors propose a Comprehensive Resilience Ecosystem (or CORE) model, an approach which, for the first time, provides a systemic way to help policymakers counter complex hybrid threats in both a coordinated and an efficient manner. 

The model presented in the report highlights two factors when we think about a response: Firstly, open societies are ever more connected within and between one another. Secondly, any response should involve the whole of society to counter threats effectively. Thus, the presented model addresses different “spaces” of society (governance, civic, and services) as well as different “levels” (international, national, and local) and, most importantly, their mutual interactions.

Analytically, the model helps to show how the sum of hybrid threat activities challenges democracies by applying different types of pressure to society as categorized in the model. 

“This paper showcases the synergies that we can create when we bundle our expertise between institutions and leverage our expert networks in the field of hybrid threats: The report bundles our collective know-how, drawing on lessons learned from five years of intensive research at Hybrid CoE and our exchange with practitioners. It provides essential suggestions based on our work, namely, how to better build resilience in the realms of civil society, governance and services,” stated Jukka Savolainen, Director of the Community of Interest on Vulnerabilities and Resilience at Hybrid CoE.

“We are grateful to colleagues at the EU Commission’s Joint Research Centre for the opportunity to contribute to this landmark report.”

“The new CORE model developed by the JRC and Hybrid CoE is a tangible tool, which will help to defend democratic societies against hybrid threats. The model proposes a systems-thinking approach to help policymakers counter even complex hybrid threats in an efficient and coordinated way,” pointed out Rainer Jungwirth, Team leader for research on hybrid threats at the JRC.

“It is the most recent culmination of the successful collaboration between our two institutions, and it leverages the expertise that the JRC has developed over the years in the area of security research and its links with policymaking. We would like to thank our co-authors for their dedication to this project.” 

Overall, the CORE model provides democratic policymakers with a hands-on tool to analyze how authoritarian states or non-state actors employ hybrid threat activity to manipulate or destabilize democracies. The “ecosystem” approach also helps to spot early signals, facilitates their analysis, and identifies responses to counter hybrid threats and build resilience.

Specifically, the CORE model 

  • maps how malicious actors use various tools against different domains to reach their target;
  • helps detect hostile activities and their intensity; 
  • monitors affected dependencies to avoid possible cascading effects; 
  • makes it easier to anticipate damage to our democracies; and 
  • assesses impacts of possible hybrid attacks and campaigns. 


As such, the new CORE model is a strategic dashboard for policymakers which helps them to decide which resources, tools and measures to mobilize in the face of hostile activities at EU, Member State or operational level. It constitutes a tangible tool for all Hybrid CoE Participating States to anticipate hybrid threats, assess their impact and guide a response.

Hybrid Threats A Comprehensive Resilience Ecosystem – Executive Summary

More information:

Aleksi Aho, Analyst, Community of Interest for Vulnerabilities & Resilience, Hybrid CoE 
Email: aleksi.aho@hybridcoe.fi

Rainer Jungwirth, Team leader, Unit E.2 “Technologies for Space, Security and Connectivity”, Joint Research Centre, European Commission 
Email: rainer.jungwirth@ec.europa.eu

  • April 11, 2023

Viktorija Rusinaité appointed Director of Research and Analysis

Dr Viktorija Rusinaité takes up the position of Director of Research and Analysis (R&A) at Hybrid CoE on 11 April 2023. Viktorija replaces Dr Hanna Smith, who was appointed Senior Strategic Advisor to the Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in November 2022.

“The R&A leadership is an important position in Hybrid CoE and I’m very pleased to have a person with such broad expertise in many core fields of Hybrid CoE’s activities to lead this function,” said Hybrid CoE Director Teija Tiilikainen. “In welcoming Viktorija to her new position, I also want to thank the Lithuanian government for making such a valuable contribution to Hybrid CoE’s staff,” Dr Tiilikainen added.

Viktorija has been working at Hybrid CoE since October 2020. Since joining the Centre, she has been in charge of the deterrence of hybrid threats workstrand, first as Senior Analyst and from July 2022 as Deputy Director of COI Hybrid Influence. Previously, she served as Head of the European Security Programme at Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis, and curator of the annual foreign policy and security conference ‘Vilnius Consultations’. Viktorija’s analytical interests include transatlantic strategic security efforts, Russian strategic culture, and Belarus-Russia relations. She holds a PhD in Political Science from the Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania.

“The R&A team has been doing brilliant work in investigating the strategic cultures of Russia and China, hybrid threats in the Arctic, trends in cognitive intrusion, and processes in Eastern Partnership countries,” Viktorija pointed out. “Moreover, R&A is the main connecting point between practitioners in Participating States and the academic world. I am thrilled to lead this team and to further strengthen the Centre’s ties to the academic community and to support our Participating States with the most topical knowledge on hybrid threats.”

Hybrid CoE’s mission is to strengthen its Participating States’ security by providing expertise and training for countering hybrid threats, and by enhancing EU-NATO cooperation in this respect. The Centre is an autonomous hub for practitioners and experts, located in Helsinki, Finland. 

Source: Vitalii Vodolazskyi / Shutterstock.com
  • March 29, 2023

Seeing red, seeking satisfaction: Russia’s and China’s use of narratives of grandeur and victimhood to justify their foreign policy goals

In the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Putin’s Russia is more internationally isolated than ever before. Over the past year, Russia has thus invested considerable diplomatic resources in glossing over this effect of its war of aggression. Authoritarian peer-to-peer visits have become a central element of Moscow’s public diplomacy strategy. Last week, China’s President Xi Jinping visited Moscow, thereby fuelling suspicions about China’s role vis-à-vis Russia’s revisionist and expansionist foreign policy – and raising further questions about China’s own intentions.

In their new Hybrid CoE Research Report, Russia and China as hybrid threat actors: The shared self-other dynamics, Jukka Aukia and Lucjan Kubica from Hybrid CoE analyze the domestic factors behind Russia’s and China’s respective foreign policy conduct. Their analysis shows that there are striking similarities in the two countries’ strategic cultures. Hence, what we are seeing in Sino-Russian cooperation today, they argue, is much more than a marriage of convenience. 

The growing alignment in bilateral relations is based on mutual interests, especially to redress what they perceive as grievances. Both Beijing and Moscow hunger for a renewed geopolitical superpower status. Thus, they feel unduly constrained by an international order in which all states are entitled to equal and sovereign rights. As we have witnessed in Ukraine, this is all the more true in areas that are perceived as a ‘sphere of influence’. The goal of their nascent alliance is clear: a world order favouring authoritarianism – at the expense of democracies whenever necessary and possible.

A shared legacy of authoritarianism is also used by Russia’s and China’s strongmen to stifle domestic dissent, which they see as stemming from “Western values”. These values include democracy, but also universal values such as human rights, and the rule of law. In general, the so-called West is perceived by the leaderships in both Beijing and Moscow as the biggest external threat to their regimes, their cultures, and their ‘way of life’.

Despite an array of non-aligning interests, which the authors discuss, and of differences that may materialize in the long run, both China and Russia project their ideas of great power competition onto the West. In line with their strategic risk assessments, and in an effort to maintain legitimacy, they resort to hybrid threat activities against Western democracies – a trend which will likely intensify in the future. 

The full research report can be downloaded here, an overview of the main findings can be found here.

flickr.com / Official U.S. Navy Page / https://www.flickr.com/photos/usnavy/49127737127
  • March 2, 2023

In, on, and under the sea: New maritime hybrid threat scenarios presented in a Hybrid CoE handbook

Russia’s attack on Ukraine and other recent international developments have accentuated the importance of studying the maritime domain to detect vulnerabilities to potential future hybrid threat operations.

To this end, Hybrid CoE has expanded and elaborated on new hybrid threat scenarios in its updated Handbook on Maritime Hybrid Threats, which is now available. The updated version analyzes a selection of 15 scenarios and legal scans, including five entirely new scenarios, demonstrating how malicious actors may seek to exploit vulnerabilities in the maritime domain. 

“The purpose of the Handbook on Maritime Hybrid Threats is to raise awareness about potential hybrid threats emerging at sea, to foster understanding of the legal context vis-à-vis international law, and to help Hybrid CoE’s Participating States, the EU and NATO in developing relevant political and legal responses as well as other mitigation tools to counter maritime hybrid threats,” pointed out Georgios Giannoulis, Deputy Director of the Community of Interest on Vulnerabilities and Resilience.

The new scenarios included in the handbook were chosen by Hybrid CoE experts on the basis of consultations and feedback received from the Centre’s Participating States, the EU and NATO in a series of expert workshops organized on the theme during last year.

“This year, the new handbook will provide the basis for our annual training programme Maritime Hybrid Threat Scenarios – Legal Aspects,” Georgios Giannoulis added. 

The new hybrid threat scenarios in the updated handbook are:

  • Undersea cable cuts 
  • Distant-water fishing
  • Freedom of navigation operations
  • Exploitation of marine resources in contested EEZ
  • Rigid-hull inflatable boat (RHIB) attack
  • January 11, 2023

Ireland becomes a Participating State of Hybrid CoE

Mr Ossian Smyth, Minister of State at the Government of Ireland, visited Hybrid CoE today to hand over the Letter of Notification to Director Teija Tiilikainen, officially making Ireland the 33rd Participating State of the Centre.

“The increasingly complex geopolitical environment presents a range of security challenges, including from hybrid threats, that are best addressed through international cooperation with like-minded states. Ireland’s decision to join the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, along with 32 other Participating States, will support the further development of our national capacity to detect, protect against and mitigate the harmful effects of hybrid threats, and to share our expertise with like-minded partners,” stated Mr Smyth.

“It is with great pleasure that I welcome Ireland to join Hybrid CoE. We are very happy to intensify cooperation with Irish practitioners and academic experts to counter the ever-changing hybrid threat environment. Ireland will make its valuable contribution to our joint efforts to identify vulnerabilities and enhance strong societal resilience in support of our common values and comprehensive security,” added Director Tiilikainen.

Besides Ireland, the Participating States of the Centre of Excellence include Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Centre cooperates closely with the EU and NATO.

Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Bulgaria joins Hybrid CoE

Read ›
Election interference

Securing elections against foreign interference: best practices and recommendations

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Resilience

The CORE model – a useful tool for rethinking resilience comprehensively

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Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Tapio Pyysalo appointed Head of International Relations

Read ›
Economic security

Of waning certainties and rising risks: CoE experts delineate economic trends and hybrid threat activities

Read ›
Resilience

Hybrid CoE and the JRC launch a new model to build resilience against hybrid threats

Read ›
Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Viktorija Rusinaité appointed Director of Research and Analysis

Read ›
China

Seeing red, seeking satisfaction: Russia’s and China’s use of narratives of grandeur and victimhood to justify their foreign policy goals

Read ›
Maritime

In, on, and under the sea: New maritime hybrid threat scenarios presented in a Hybrid CoE handbook

Read ›
Organization (Hybrid CoE)

Ireland becomes a Participating State of Hybrid CoE

Read ›